Dying by numbers

Once again, UNAIDS has come up with new figures, and as always, everyone's taking potshots at them. The 'new' figures for Indonesia show an increase in 35% since the last (national) estimate carried out very rigorously in 2005. Were the UNAIDS figures a result of a similarly rigorous exercise? So far, nobody seems to know. But of course those responsible for the 2005 estimate won't easily accept the new figures. Why should we believe what these foreign 'experts' say?

Not being an epidemiologist, and caring more about people than figures (is that a cheap shot?), I can't comment on the validity of either set of figures. However, I do remember that a another set of experts in the late 1990's pooh-poohed the idea that Indonesia could ever face an epidemic of injecting drug use. One expert told me to keep quiet, because there was no evidence base for such an epidemic. And in any case, Indonesians don't like needles!

I'm also amused by the responses to the 40% increase in estimate of infections in the US. An 'expert' on the BBC has just questioned if this means that African estimates are also similarly low? I doubt it, but Indonesia?

No voices have been raised about the estimate of 8,700 deaths from AIDS in 2007. The national experts don't offer a similar figure, but given that they agree that almost 200,000 people are infected, this figure would seem reasonable. So far, since the start of the epidemic, a total of less that 2,500 deaths have been reported, with a reduction of seven over the last quarter (how can the number of deaths go down? OK, I know!). What seems clear is that more than 50,000 people have died of AIDS in Indonesia undiagnosed. How can so many mostly young people die unnoticed - and uncared?

Babé